Racing - Systems .co.uk

Loss Recovery Plans

WEALTH WARNING ! Never buy any system or follow any tipster who suggests that you use a loss recovery plan. They are almost guaranteed to fail.

What Is A Loss Recovery Plan?

The idea behind a loss recovery plan is to increase your stakes to win back all your previous losses plus a predetermined gain. For example say you were aiming to win Ł10. After two races you are Ł30 down. The next selection is an even money shot. So to recover your losses and to make your Ł10 gain you would stake Ł40 at evens and hope that it wins.

A common system doing the rounds is the "stop at a winning favourite plan" You are told that 33% of favourites win their race. This is about right and implies that on a typical six race card there will be two winning favourites. The average price for a favourite is about 6/4. The system suggests that you aim to win say Ł10 per day. To do this you back each favourite till you get a winner. You adjust your stake after each loser to recover the previous losses plus make your Ł10. Sounds simple doesn't it and yes that will work you might say. Well most days you would be right. The problem lies in the fact that although 33% of favourites win, they do not come as regularly as two per card. Some days all the favourites will win. However at other times several days may pass without a favourite winning.

Lets look at how your stakes would have to increase to operate this plan on one of those regularly occurring bad runs.

(Aim of Ł10 assumed. Tax not accounted for.)

Race No.	Odds	Previous Loss (Ł)	Aim (Ł)	Stake Required (Ł)
1	6/4	0	10.00	6.67
2	6/4	6.67	16.67	11.11
3	6/4	17.78	27.78	18.52
4	6/4	36.30	46.30	30.86
5	6/4	67.16	77.16	51.44
6	6/4	118.60	128.60	85.73
7	6/4	204.33	214.33	142.89
8	6/4	347.22	357.22	238.15
9	6/4	585.37	595.37	396.92

See how the amount to be staked rises exponentially with a losing run. Imagine the sweat you would be working up placing Ł400 on a horse just to win a fiver. Remember that although runs like this will not occur often, statistics dictate that they will occur and probably more frequently than you would expect. When they do occur your whole betting bank disappears in one fell swoop.

There are other systems I have seen which use the same approach. They do not always use favourites and may use some other dubious formulae for picking your horse. The end result will be the same ..bankruptcy.

Never fall into the trap of using this kind of plan!

If a system or tipster does not make level stakes profits bin it.

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