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Technique to Improve Bet Profitability.

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 

This article describes on technique I often use to increase the long term profitability of my bets.

The internet betting revolution has opened up many possibilities not available to the average shop punter. In my view, the greatest new influence are the new breed of betting exchange sites.

The original was Betfair but a more recently arrival is Smarkets . Currently Betfair has the largest market share and I find it easier to match bets there. Smarkets however offer lower commission rates and are therefore worth using as often as possible as they will save you cash.

This odds enhancement technique requires the use of a betting exchange account. If you are serious about profiting from betting you you would be very foolish not to use exchange accounts in your armory as more often than not odds there will beat the traditional bookmakers.

This technique however goes beyond the simple better odds available on Smarkets etc.

For starts let me remind you how you make money long term from betting. This is quite simple in theory. You need to betting at better odds than true chance of winning of your selections.

It boils down to strike rate of your selections and the odds at which you be t..

To make more money you either increase the strike rate of your selections or increase the odds at which you bet them at.

What I would like to show you is a way to increase the odds at which you bet. This technique is most suited to horses shortening in price over the day although you can sometimes profit from it from temporary fluctuations in the exchange markets.

So how then do we increase the odds at which we bet?

Well the answer is simple. We lay back some of the stake on the exchange site such as Betfair or Smarkets at a price shorter than that at which we originally bet. Then we let the laws of mathematics do the rest.

For example let us say over a year we place 100 separate bets of £100 at 5/1.

25 percent of these win.

Your total stake will have been £10,000

25 times you get your stake back as it is a winning bet. = 25 * £100 = £2500

you also have 25 winners at 5/1 = 25 * £100 * 5 = £12,500

Total return is £15,000

Net profit £5,000

The average odds at which you bet is obviously 5/1.

Now let us examine a scenario using the lay back approach. There are two key factors in laying back.

A the percentage of your original stake you lay back and

B the percentage of the original price at which you lay back.

For clarity I have excluded exchange commission figures which vary from 0% to 5%.

For this example lets assume that you lay back 50% of the stake at 80% of the initial price at which you bet ie 4/1 in this example.

As before the betting side shows a profit of 5,000.

However we now have the addition of the lays to consider.

75 times you would have won the backers stake of £50 = £3,750

25 times however you have had to pay up for the winning horse ie

£50 by 4 to 1* 25 = £5,000 loss

So net loss on lays is £1,250.

Adding this loss to the betting profit of £5,000 the total profit is now £3,750

At this point I know you are saying "what's going on ..that is a smaller profit from before!"

Here however is the important point. Using standard betting you were risking £100 a bet.

By laying back you were risking only £50 per bet. You have made a profit of £3,750 on 100 bets of net £50.

So now if we work out the average odds at which you were betting it is as follows.

net profit = return - total stake

£3750 = return - (£50 * 100) ie return = £8750

Return on series of winning bets is .. number of winners * stake * (1+odds)

25 * £50 * (1 +odds) = £8750

Working that out you see that the odds at which you have been betting at have been 6/1.

In this particular example you have increased you odds from 5 to 6 which is an increase of 20% !

This manipulation of net odds in your favor gives you extra comfort in your betting. An additional buffer perhaps btween success and failure.

All those calculations are a little tedius to do each time hence I have constructed a chart indicating how this enhancement factor changes according to the percentage of stake you lay back and the percentage of the origianl bet odds at which you lay.

Chart opens in new window Click Here

Next Page...Thoughts on use of this teqnique. Click Here

 

 
 

 
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